FROM: SIPA Student
RE: Addressing New York City's Teacher Shortage
Summary
New York City's public schools have among the highest rates of teacher attrition in the country. Frequent turnover has contributed to a teacher shortage in the city. A strategic investment in a year-long teacher residency program would address the shortage by producing a consistent pipeline of high-quality teachers.
New York City's Teacher Shortage
A teacher shortage in the nation's public schools presents an immediate challenge for our education system. The problem is particularly acute in New York City, where the Department of Education is scrambling to fill 7,000 teacher vacancies ahead of the start of in-person learning in the 2020–2021 school year. Moreover, state officials estimate that New York will need more than 180,000 new teachers in the next decade.
The teacher shortage in New York is a result of many factors, but a high rate of teacher attrition — teachers leaving the profession early — may be the primary driver of the shortage. An analysis by the NYC Comptroller's Office found that 41 percent of all teachers hired in New York City in the 2012–13 school year left within five years. In 2018, the teacher attrition rate in New York City rose to 25 percent, well above the national average of eight percent.
High rates of teacher attrition negatively impact student achievement, and disproportionately affect schools serving the largest concentrations of students of color. Reversing this trend will require an investment in a teacher training program to address the underlying factors associated with the city's high rate of teacher attrition.
Policy Options
This memo evaluates three policies designed to reduce the teacher attrition rate in New York City's public schools: increasing teacher's base salaries, hiring support personnel for teachers, and investing in a large-scale teacher residency program. These policies will be evaluated by the extent to which they reduce teacher attrition, and by the cost of their implementation.
Policy 1: Increasing Base Salaries for Public School Teachers in New York City
In the 2019–2020 academic year, the median starting salary for New York City teachers with a bachelor's degree was $57,845/year, well above the national average of $39,249/year. However, the higher cost of living in New York City means that many teachers struggle to live comfortably on their current salaries; the majority of the city's public school teachers qualify for public housing, and the lowest paid teachers in the city spend 65% of their salary on rent alone.
Increasing the base salaries for New York City's teachers by approximately $7,000/year would close the pay gap between teachers and other professionals with a bachelor's degree living in the city, and help keep more teachers in their school.
Projecting Outcomes
Low compensation is a key factor in the rising attrition rates of teachers. According to the Economic Policy Institute, a $1,000 increase in a teacher's base salary is associated with a 0.4 percentage-point increase in the probability of that teacher staying in the same school.
By this estimate, increasing the base salaries for the city's teachers by $7,000/year is likely to produce between a 2–3% reduction in attrition rate. A $7,000/year increase in compensation for the city's public school teachers would have an annual cost of approximately $50 million.
Policy 2: Hiring Additional Support Personnel for New York City Public Schools
National guidance counselors and social workers groups recommend having one counselor and one social worker each for every 250 students. In the 2015–16 school year, New York City had 1.2 support workers for every 250 students, fewer than in many other cities, including Washington D.C. and Los Angeles.
Hiring additional support staff for the city's public schools to ensure that every school meets the recommended support worker-to-student ratio would contribute to safer learning environments, and reduce the burden currently placed on the city's teachers.
Projecting Outcomes
A survey from the Learning Policy Institute found that the predicted turnover rate for teachers who lack sufficient support personnel is approximately 13 percentage points higher than the turnover rate for teachers who have sufficient support. By this estimate, providing more New York City teachers with specialized assistance would conservatively reduce attrition rates by 6–10 percentage points.
There are 1,700 public schools in New York City's public school system. In order to meet the recommended support worker-to-student ratio, the city would have to hire approximately 1,360 additional personnel — a mix of administrators, social workers, counselors, and nurses. If each of these additional hires were, on average, paid an annual salary of $60,000/year, the annual cost to the city would be approximately $80 million.
Policy 3: Invest in a Teacher Residency Program
A recent survey of New York City teachers found that less than 30 percent felt that they were "very well prepared" to provide instruction at the start of their first year of teaching.
While the high teacher attrition rate, particularly among New York City's newest teachers, has produced an urgent shortage, it also presents an opportunity: investing in early preparation and training for teachers today can reduce attrition rates in the future.
According to a report from the city's Comptroller's Office, a residency program that trains 1,000 teachers each year and features a full-year classroom apprenticeship alongside a mentor teacher could better prepare early career teachers and reduce turnover in New York City's public schools.
Projecting Outcomes
Research suggests that teacher residencies offer an effective model for improving teacher attrition. A study by the Learning Policy Institute found that 82% of teachers who graduated from a teacher residency program in the U.S. were still teaching in their same district in their third and fourth year, compared to 72% of non-residency graduates.
At full scale, the Comptroller's Office estimates that a residency program that reliably staffs 1,000 teachers in New York City's schools each year would have an annual cost of about $40 million, and would reduce by half the five-year attrition rate for teachers in the residency program.
Recommendation: Invest in a Teacher Residency Program
Of the three policy alternatives presented, a large-scale teacher residency program will most significantly reduce the teacher attrition rate over a ten-year period.
Increasing the base salaries of the city's public school teachers, while perhaps necessary, may not be the most effective solution for reducing the rate of teacher attrition in the long run. Between 2002–2016, the average salary for New York City's teachers increased by $19,000. Yet, turnover rates have steadily increased over that period.
Hiring full-time additional support staff would likely be more effective at curbing teacher attrition. However, it is also projected to have the highest price tag of the policy alternatives, and given the city's recent hiring freeze across the education department, it's unlikely that this is a feasible option.
A teacher residency program would have an upfront annual cost of $40 million, but the city could expect to regain some of the initial investment through cost savings from improved teacher retention. Assuming the five-year attrition rate would be reduced by half for teachers in the residency program, annual savings directly from increased retention would amount to about $4 million each year.
Stakeholders
Bill De Blasio, New York City Mayor
Mayor Bill De Blasio's Office of Management and Budget presides over the city's $27 billion education budget. In April, De Blasio proposed nearly $642 million in new cuts to the city's education budget following the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
Freezing education spending now will create significant costs for the city in the future. A recent study of 850,000 New York City 4th- and 5th-grade students over an eight-year period found that teacher replacement costs surpassed $20,000/year in some schools.
The city council should work closely with the mayor's office to ensure he remains committed to investing in education, and aggressively explores options to re-allocate additional funds to the city's public schools.
United Federation of Teachers
Representing nearly 200,000 school workers, the United Federation of Teachers (UFT) is among the largest and most influential teacher unions in the country.
The union's influence on education policy in New York City is extensive. Its political committees are regular contributors to the city's and state's Democratic Party, and its membership constitutes the largest single voting bloc in mayoral elections. According to Manhattan Institute fellow and City College of New York professor Daniel DiSalvo, "no group in New York City can rival the UFT's manpower and money" in New York City politics.
Collaborating with UFT's president Michael Mulgrew to enlist the union's support for this reform could help accelerate action from the mayor's office.
Institutions
New York City Council
As New York City's legislative body, the Council works hand-in-hand with the Mayor's Office to propose new legislation and negotiate on the city's budget. The Committee can secure approval for budget re-allocations by a majority vote among its 51-member body.
There are a number of options for securing $40 million for a teacher residency program from the city's $27 billion education budget. Two of these include re-evaluating the city's $25 million grant to charter schools, and tapping in to the city's reserve funds, which will total $1.25 billion annually for fiscal years 2022 to 2024.
Department of Education
Developing a fully-scaled teacher residency program in New York City could be accomplished by leveraging the Department of Education's existing partnerships with institutions of higher education.
Encouraging the DOE to collaborate with higher education institutions that already have smaller residency programs, including CUNY Queens College and Columbia University's Teachers College, will ensure that the program is efficiently scaled, and that new teachers are funneled to schools with the greatest need.
Moving Forward
As the chairperson of the City Council's Committee on Education, you have a track record of fighting for the city's public schools. You also have the authority to recommend and advance new budget proposals.
By partnering with Mayor De Blasio and the Department of Education, and by enlisting the support of the city's teacher's union, you can help secure an investment in a year-long teacher residency program that will create a consistent pipeline of highly qualified teachers. The program will reduce teacher turnover and its associated costs, and will improve student achievement in the city's schools.